The Critical Role of EV Battery Recycling

Lightweight and powerful lithium-ion batteries are essential for the shift to electric vehicles.  As a result, the global demand for lithium is projected to increase significantly in the next quarter-century.

A recent study by the University of California, examined methods to satisfy rising lithium demands through new mining projects and enhanced battery recycling. The study indicates that recycling will be crucial in mitigating supply limitations.

Lithium, an abundant mineral, had a stable and modest demand until about a decade ago, with a few mines fulfilling global needs. However, the electric vehicle surge has led to a significant surge in lithium demand—a 30% increase between 2022 and 2023 alone. Opening a new lithium mine represents a substantial, potentially billion-dollar undertaking with a development timeline of 10 to 15 years before production commences.  Environmental regulations and community resistance pose risks of delays or even abandonment of such mining proposals. A halt in supply will impede electric vehicle expansion, limiting transportation options and prolonging the use of fossil fuel vehicles, thereby increasing carbon emissions.

Under a high-demand scenario, research predicts the necessity of opening up to 85 new lithium deposits by 2050. However, their research also demonstrates that implementing policies supporting smaller batteries and global recycling could substantially lower this number to as few as 15 new mines. The study analyzed how future lithium mining needs would shift based on various demand scenarios.

Optimal timing is crucial. For a consistent lithium supply suitable for recycling, new mines must first become operational. Projections indicate that recycling will have the most significant impact around 2035, contingent on demand forecasts.